[escepticos] conviene no esperar a tener mejores modelos del cambio climático... porque no los habrá posiblemente.

[javier armentia]

Más o menos eso es lo que comentan en el Science de hoy:
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/318/5850/582


Climate Change is Inherently Uncertain:
A new study shows that climate researchers will not be able to further 
refine estimates of the climates sensitivity to anthropogenic 
influences. This finding could encourage policy makers to begin making 
climate-related decisions instead of waiting for better analyses. 
Climate sensitivity refers to the change in global average temperature 
that would be caused by doubling the pre-industrial levels of the 
atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. Earlier this year, the 
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change agreed that climate 
sensitivity is between 2 and 4.5 degrees Celsius. There is a small 
chance that it could be more, up to 8 degrees C or higher. These numbers 
represent three decades of research with advanced computing and an 
ever-growing cadre of researchers. The low probability of the much 
higher change is an intrinsic feature of the climate system according to 
feedback analysis performed by Gerard Roe and Marcia Baker and not a 
result of inadequate data or models.
   In a Perspective, Myles R. Allen and David J. Frame discuss the 
practical consequences of this finding.