[escepticos] los limites del debate cientifico

[jmbello]

Hello Carlos,

Sunday, October 21, 2007, 10:29:26 PM, you wrote:

CU> 2) Carta de Chris Landsea, experto en huracanes, anunciando en 2005
CU> que abandona el IPCC (así resulta más fácil alcanzar consensos, claro):

Bueno, suele ser prudente no hacer caso literal de lo que cualquier
dimisionario dice en su carta de dimisión. Suele haber verdades,
cierto, pero también suele haber más cosas.

Sin entrar a fondo en un asunto que no forma parte de mis intereses
inmediatos, sí que encuentro a la primera algún material de cierto
interés.

Por ejemplo:

-------------
"Here's what Trenberth said:

"Human activities are changing the composition of the atmosphere and
global warming is happening as a result," says Kevin Trenberth, head
of the Climate Analysis Section at NCAR and a convening lead author of
the 2007 IPCC report for the chapter on observed changes. "Global
warming is manifested in many ways, some unexpected. Sea level has
risen 1.25 inches in the past 10 years as a result of warming of the
oceans and glacier melting. The environment in which hurricanes form
is changing. The result was a hurricane in late March 2004 in the
South Atlantic, off the coast of Brazil: the first and only such
hurricane in that region. Several factors go into forming hurricanes
and where they track. But the evidence strongly suggests more intense
storms and risk of greater flooding events, so that the North Atlantic
hurricane season of 2004 may well be a harbinger of the future."

This does not sound so different from what Landsea acknowedges in his
letter to Trennberth.

Dan Kirk-Davidoff, Asst. Professor of Meteorology, U. Maryland.
------------------

En cuanto a la politización, haberla hayla. Por todos los lados:
acusaciones fundadas hay de censura de determinados científicos por
parte de la administración Bush:

"Climate-controlled White House

The administration claims it wasn't telling scientists what to say
about climate change; e-mails obtained by Salon prove otherwise.

By Paul D. Thacker

In February, there were several press reports about the Bush
administration exercising message control on the subject of climate
change. The New Republic cited numerous instances in which top
officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and
scientists at the National Hurricane Center sought to downplay links
between more-intense hurricanes and global warming. NOAA scientist
Thomas Knutson told the Wall Street Journal he'd been barred from
speaking to CNBC because his research suggested just such a link.

At the time, Bush administration officials denied that they did any
micromanaging of media requests for interviews. But a large batch of
e-mails obtained by Salon through a Freedom of Information Act request
shows that the White House was, in fact, controlling access to
scientists and vetting reporters. (The e-mails were provided to
several members of Congress for comment; Rep. Henry Waxman's office
has now published them here.)

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2006/09/19/noaa/index_np.html
-------------------------

Y si Knutson fue censurado por los Bush Boys, ¿quién fue el elegido
por dicha administración para hablar a la prensa comunicando la
verdadera verdad de la ciencia?

¡Exacto!

--------------------
According to agency emails gathered by Salon and
later released by Rep. Henry Waxman, Republican administrators chose
**Landsea** over another scientist in the NOAA to speak to the media about
the link between hurricanes and climate change after Hurricane Katrina
devastated New Orleans.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Landsea#_note-2
--------------------

En fin, siempre se dice que la casuística particular no vale de gran
cosa cuando se quiere llegar a formulaciones generales. A mí esto de
andar de cotilleos hurgando en los pecados de unos y otros me parece,
además de inútil, falto de elegancia. Pero si es el camino que se
escoge, habrá que seguirlo. Me atrevo a pronosticar el resultado final
de una práctica tan poco edificante: descubriremos que todo el mundo
se hace bolitas con las cacas de la nariz en los semáforos. E incluso
que, de cuando en vez, todos se tiran un pedo cuando creen que no los
ven.

¿De verdad no lo sabías?

Saludos

JM

PS: Volviendo al asunto de los huracanes, que tiene más enjundia que
los cotilleos, otro testimonio:

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Roger A. Pielke (Jr), who originally published Landsea's letter,[2]
expressed his opinion that the actual IPCC report "maintain[s]
consistency with the actual balance of opinion(s) in the community of
relevant experts." Regarding IPCC politics, Pielke suggested that
anyone who fails to see that the IPCC talks had political elements
"isn't paying attention." [7]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Landsea#_note-2
-------------

PS(2): Con lo que queda demostrado que aquí, el que no corre, vuela.
Pero el consenso sigue siendo el que era. El que es.