Re: [escepticos] Conspiración neoliberal!

[Pedro J. Hdez]

El día 22 de junio de 2012 00:22, jm <jmbello en mundo-r.com> escribió:
> El día 22 de junio de 2012 01:07, Pedro J. Hdez <phergont en gmail.com> escribió:
>
>> actual como esa. Eso significa que los economistas saben cosas sobre
>> el mundo que los no-economistas no saben. Así de simple.
>
> ¿Los economistas o Krugman? ¿Cuáles son los otros que predijeron lo mismo?

Milton Friedman diciendo casi lo mismo que Krugman en 2000

Michael Bordo: Do you think the recent introduction of the euro will lead
to the formation of other common-currency areas?

Milton Friedman: That’s an extremely interesting question. I think that the
euro is one of the few really new things we’ve had in the world in recent
years. Never in history, to my knowledge, has there been a similar case in
which you have a single central bank controlling politically independent
countries.
The gold standard was one in which individual countries adhered to a
particular commodity—gold—and they were always free to break or to
leave it, or to change the rate. Under the euro, that possibility is not there.
For a country to break, it really has to break. It has to introduce a brand new
currency of its own.
I think the euro is in its honeymoon phase. I hope it succeeds, but I have very
low expectations for it. I think that differences are going to accumulate
among the various countries and that non-synchronous shocks are going to
affect them. Right now, Ireland is a very different state; it needs a very
different monetary policy from that of Spain or Italy.
On purely theoretical grounds, it’s hard to believe that it’s going to be a
stable system for a long time. On the other hand, new things happen and new
developments arise.
The one additional factor that has come out that leads me to raise a question
about this is the evidence that a single currency—currency unification—
tends to very sharply increase the trade among the various political units. If
international trade goes up enough, it may reduce some of the harm that
comes from the inability of individual countries to adjust to asynchronous
shocks. But that’s just a potential scenario.
You know, the various countries in the euro are not a natural currency
trading group. They are not a currency area. There is very little mobility of
people among the countries. They have extensive controls and regulations
and rules, and so they need some kind of an adjustment mechanism to
adjust to asynchronous shocks—and the floating exchange rate gave them
one.
They have no mechanism now.
If we look back at recent history, they’ve tried in the past to have rigid
exchange rates, and each time it has broken down. 1992, 1993, you had the
crises. Before that, Europe had the snake, and then it broke down into
something else. So the verdict isn’t in on the euro. It’s only a year old. Give
it time to develop its troubles.

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/keynote.pdf


saludos

Pedro J.

>
> Saludos
>
> JM
>
> PS: Un gaiteiro no hace bagad :-)
> _______________________________________________
> Escepticos mailing list
> Escepticos en dis.ulpgc.es
> http://correo.dis.ulpgc.es/mailman/listinfo/escepticos



-- 
Pedro J. Hernández
http://ecos.blogalia.com
@ecosdelfuturo