Re: [escepticos] Los virus, ¿se mezclan?

[Pedro J. Hdez]

El día 29 de abril de 2009 13:15, Pedro J. Hdez <phergont en gmail.com> escribió:
> El día 29 de abril de 2009 11:27, Josep Català <jcatala en tecnopress.es> escribió:
>> Pedro J. Hdez ha escrito:
>>

>>
>> Por el momento, la OMS, que, por lo visto, se ha vuelto conspiranoica,
>
> No, pero no hay números suficientes para hacer estimaciones ni de la
> morbilidad ni de la mortalidad. La OMS se está poniendo en el peor de
> los escenarios. Me parece perfectamente razonable.

Los números de este artículo de Slate confirman lo poco que sabemos
sobre la morbilidad y mortalidad de la epidemia
http://www.slate.com/id/2217019/pagenum/all/#p2

"All this affects the apparent significance of the numbers involved.
Of the 110 million people in Mexico, 1,600 cases have been reported,
with about 100 deaths—suggesting a mortality rate of 6 percent. This
is almost certainly bad math, as the total case count almost certainly
ignores thousands or tens of thousands of other cases that have taken
milder courses like those in the United States. It's perfectly
conceivable Mexico has actually had 10,000 or 100,000 cases—or even 1
million cases. If so, then the kill rate would be not 6 percent but
0.1 percent (given 10,000 cases) or 0.01 percent (given 100,000
cases). If it's 1 million cases (quite possible if this thing really
spreads easily) then the mortality rate is just 1 in 10,000.
Meanwhile, because the United States is on high alert—and can take
special note of people with recent travel to Mexico—it is probably
picking up a fairly high percentage of its cases, including milder
instances that would have gone unnoticed in Mexico a few weeks ago.

If it hasn't infected that many thousands of people in Mexico, on the
other hand, that would suggest that, though it may be deadly, it
doesn't spread as readily as we fear. To hear of multiple tourist
groups coming down with the virus suggests it spreads like wildfire.
But it also ignores the virtual certainty that many tourists and other
travelers have been exposed without getting ill.

That's not to be too sanguine. For one thing, it's also possible that
Mexico is missing, undercounting, or badly underreporting deaths. But
if this virus really does spread rapidly, its kill rate is fairly low;
and if its kill rate is anywhere near as high as the 100-out-of-1,600
suggests, then it doesn't spread very easily."

(n-1) saludos

Pedro J.

>
>> está a punto (¿final de semana?) de implantar la "fase 5" (y hay 6...)
>> y ya recomienda, abiertamente, preparar los "Tamiflú" y otros
>> semejantes para aplicarlos. Si es que son o no  efectivos, que esta es
>> otra. La propia OMS ya indica claramente que los paises no se preocupen
>> de cerrar fronteras, que esto -mortal o no- ya no lo para nadie.
>>
>> (De verdad que lo lamento, pero en un ataque conspiranoico (o no) te
>> mantengo filtrado desde ahora mismo. Por cierto: me da igual lo que
>> pienses de mi decisión...)
>
> No pienso nada. Normalmente respondo a un mensaje en una lista de
> correo dirigiéndome por respeto a todos lo que la leen. Y asumo que lo
> que muchas veces digo sólo resultará de interés para unos pocos. Así
> que tu decisión no me resulta ni siquiera estadísticamente
> significativa :-))
>
> Aaadios
>
> Pedro J.
>>
>> Josep Català
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>
>
>
> --
> Pedro J. Hdez
> Ecos del futuro
> http://ecos.blogalia.com
>



-- 
Pedro J. Hdez
Ecos del futuro
http://ecos.blogalia.com